| 张馨予,魏统彪,石鹏卿.甘肃省白龙江流域历史地震对地质灾害的影响分区研究[J].甘肃地质,2026,35(2):62-70 |
| 甘肃省白龙江流域历史地震对地质灾害的影响分区研究 |
| ZONINATION ON THE IMPACT OF HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKES ON GEOLOGICAL HAZARDS IN BAILONGJIANG RIVER BASIN OF GANSU PROVINCE |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 历史地震 地质灾害 GIS空间分析 影响分区 白龙江流域 |
| 英文关键词:historical earthquakes geological hazards GIS spatial analysis impact zoning Bailong River Basin |
| 基金项目:甘肃省自然资源厅科技创新项目（202431）；甘肃省科技厅青年科技基金项目（24JRRA683）。 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为揭示多次历史大地震对区域地质灾害的叠加影响效应，以甘肃省白龙江流域为研究区，系统梳理研究区历史地震活动特征与现今地质灾害发育现状，选取1654年天水8. 0级、1879年武都8. 0级、2008年汶川8. 0级三次特大地震为核心研究对象，结合GIS空间分析技术统计分析历史大地震高烈度区内崩滑灾害的分布规律，探究地质灾害异常分布的共性成因，并通过层次分析法确定不同历史地震的影响权重，开展历史地震对地质灾害的影响分区研究。结果表明：研究区地质灾害发育受历史地震烈度控制显著，灾害数量、密度和规模整体随地震烈度降低呈衰变趋势，个别烈度区的异常分布由区域地质环境、人类工程活动及中小地震叠加作用共同导致；基于加权叠加分析将研究区划分为极高、高、中、低4个历史地震影响区，极高影响区集中于陇南市武都区核心区域及白龙江两岸，地质灾害发育密度达51. 4处 ／ 100 km2，为研究区灾害防控核心区域。 研究成果可为白龙江流域地质灾害评价、监测预警及防灾减灾工作提供科学依据。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| To elucidate the cumulative impact of multiple historical major earthquakes on regional geological hazards, this study focuses on the Bailongjiang River Basin in Gansu Province. It systematically examines historical seismic activity patterns and current geological hazard development status, with three major earthquakes as core research subjects: the 8. 0-magnitude Tianshui earthquake （1654）, the 8.0-magnitude Wudu earthquake （1879）, and the 8. 0-magnitude Wenchuan earthquake （2008）. Utilizing GIS spatial analysis techniques, the study statistically analyzes distribution patterns of landslides and debris flows in high -intensity seismic zones, investigates common causes of abnormal geological hazard distribution, and employs the analytic hierarchy process to determine impact weights of historical earthquakes, conducting zonal impact assessments. Results demonstrate that geological hazard development in the study area is significantly controlled by historical earthquake intensity, with disaster quantity, density, and scale showing an overall decaying trend as seismic intensity decreases. Abnormal distributions in specific intensity zones result from combined effects of regional geological environments, human engineering activities, and small-to-medium earthquakes. Among the three 8. 0-magnitude earthquakes, the 1879 Wudu earthquake exhibited the strongest impact intensity, followed by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, while the 1654 Tianshui earthquake had the weakest effect. Seismic occurrence timing and epicenter location emerged as critical determinants of impact intensity. Through weighted superposition analysis, the study area was classified into four historical earthquake impact zones: extremely high, high, medium, and low intensity. The extremely high-intensity zone concentrated in Wudu District core area and both banks of the Bailongjiang River, with a geological hazard density of 51. 4 occurrences per 100 km2, constituting the critical disaster prevention zone for regional mitigation strategies. The research results can provide scientific basis for geological disaster assessment, monitoring and early warning as well as disaster prevention and mitigation in the Bailongjiang River Basin. |
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