| 陈 昊,李文彦,简 鹏.基于多因素加权指数和法的地质灾害监测预警体系运行成效评价方法研究[J].甘肃地质,2026,35(2):71-79 |
| 基于多因素加权指数和法的地质灾害监测预警体系运行成效评价方法研究 |
| EVALUATING THE OPERATIONAL EFFECTIVENESS OF GEOHAZARD MONITORING AND EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS BY A MULTI-FACTOR WEIGHTED INDEX SUM APPROACH |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 地质灾害 监测预警 综合防治成效 多因素加权指数和法 |
| 英文关键词:geological hazard monitoring warning integrated control effectiveness multivariate weighted index sum method |
| 基金项目:2023 年中央地质灾害防治专项资金补助项目（甘财资环〔2022〕95 号）。 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 监测预警是防范地质灾害的有效措施之一，地质灾害监测预警体系防治成效评价是区域防灾减灾工作中的重要环节，既可以用来检验监测预警体系的合理性和防灾有效性，又可以为区内后续同类项目的实施提供参考借鉴。 根据地质灾害监测预警体系实际，以多因素加权指数和法为理论基础，筛选出4项一级指标（群测群防体系、专业监测体系、气象风险监测预警、巡查排查及能力建设），14项二级指标（群测群防网络建设覆盖度和完整性、监测方法记录报送规范性、预警信息发布及时性、防灾知识完备性、监测网布设合理性、仪器运行维护时效性、预警预报及时准确性、防灾减灾有效性、气象风险监测预警建设完整性、预警预报及时准确性、预警响应与避险成效性、巡查排查制度建设完整性、巡查排查情况落实有效性、能力建设完整性）构建地质灾害监测预警体系防治成效综合评价指标体系，采用层次分析法确定各指标权重，以监测预警体系防治成效多因素加权指数Is的相对大小作为评价监测预警体系防治成效的定量指标，以舟曲县大川镇地质灾害监测预警体系运行情况为例，采用多因素加权指数和法对其防治成效进行评价，经检验该模型评价效果良好。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Monitoring and early warning is one of the effective measures to prevent geological disasters. The effectiveness evaluation of the geological disaster monitoring and early warning system is a crucial part of regional disaster prevention and mitigation. It can not only test the rationality and effectiveness of the monitoring and early warning system but also provide a reference for the implementation of subsequent similar projects in the area. Based on the actual situation of the geological disaster monitoring and early warning system and using the multifactor weighted index method as the theoretical foundation, this study selected 4 first -level indicators （mass observation and prevention system, professional monitoring system, meteorological risk monitoring and early warning, and inspection, investigation, and capacity building） and 14 second -level indicators （coverage and completeness of mass observation and prevention network, standardization of monitoring methods and record reporting, timeliness of early warning information release, completeness of disaster prevention knowledge, rationality of monitoring network layout, timeliness of instrument operation and maintenance, timeliness and accuracy of early warning and forecasting, effectiveness of disaster prevention and mitigation, completeness of meteorological risk monitoring and early warning construction, timeliness and accuracy of early warning and forecasting, effectiveness of early warning response and risk avoidance, completeness of inspection and investigation system construction, effectiveness of inspection and investigation implementation, and completeness of capacity building） to construct a comprehensive evaluation index system for the effectiveness of the geological
disaster monitoring and early warning system. The Analytic Hierarchy Process （AHP） was used to determine the weight of each indicator. The relative magnitude of the multi-factor weighted index（Is） for the effectiveness of the monitoring and early warning system was used as a quantitative indicator to evaluate its performance. Taking the operation of the geological disaster monitoring and early warning system in Dachuan Town, Zhouqu County as an example, the multi-factor weighted index method was employed to evaluate its effectiveness. The test results show that the model has good evaluation performance. |
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